Lebanon: An Uncertain Future

Translated into French for Tel Quel Magazine - an excellent Moroccan current events weekly magazine -This is the original text translated by Daria Van Vacas. Beirut – Irina Prentice "Why are we killing each other?" exclaims Samia Ahmed attending the wake of Mohamed Shamea, a 20 year-old man killed in the recent violence which has erupted throughout Lebanon. "They should not be killing the family of Lebanon... We don't want any more zaims, we don't want anymore politicians" continued Samia. Mohamed's wife, all of 17 and five months pregnant sat with damp cheeks in a large circle of mourning woman. Her mother sitting next to her said crying: "Mohamed would have never met his young son." Such is the reality for those families losing their sons to the violent clashes, which have erupted between the Sunni and Druze factions loyal to the government and the opposition led by the Shiite resistance movement Hezbollah. Each day the death toll mounts, and Lebanese families once again attend the funerals of their young killed in what a resident of Beirut labels a new civil war. Mustapha Kassem a veteran cameraman who lived through Lebanon's 15 years civil war ignited in 1975 said: "Yes, I think it is fair to say that the country is at war, it's a civil war". Although the fighting is contained to stronghold areas of the Sunni and Druze factions backing the present government, each day the battle moves to a new place, and there is a growing list of villages involved in armed conflict which is making the headlines. So far, the sectarian face of the battle seems to be limited to the Sunni, Shia and Druze communities. For the time being, the divided Christian community seems to be standing on the sidelines, it has too much to lose if it too were to turn its arms on itself. Already a minority in the region, further killing would reduce the Arab Christian number to a count of fingers on both hands. It would also put into question its claim to power in Lebanon. Tracking the battles, it appears that the Hezbollah led opposition supported by its non-Christian factions is slowly closing in on the Sunni leader Saad Hariri and the Druze leader Walid Jumblatt strongholds in Lebanon. The battle for both leaders already lost in Beirut last week, is likely to be in its final phases in the provinces, depending on the outcome of diplomatic negotiations taking place regionally and internationally. Although Lebanon is a small country, only a 5 hours drive north south, and 2 and a half hours east west, the diverse population and freedom of thought attracts a wide variety regional and international players each attempting to influence the different local groups to support their political agenda and international battles. And yet it is because this country is small that quite often competing ideologies finds themselves in direct confrontation. There is no spare room in Lebanon to absorb and diffuse tensions. What makes the story here complicated is that national battles take on international dimensions, which in return forces international opponents to face each other in real time when they land on Lebanese soil. Such was the scenario that led to last week's outbreak of violence, now become an outright war. The West and Israel are pitted against the Iranian and Syrian foes. The Western and Saudi backed government attempted to dismantle Hezbollah's surveillance apparatus in the airport. The apparatus was made up of two components: one, General Wafic Shukeir, head of airport security and ally of Hezbollah (he was asked to resign); two, the dissembling of Hezbollah's surveillance cameras. The response to the government decision was severe. Al-Sayyed Nasrallah, head of Hezbollah in a videoconference statement last Thursday revealed a very firm and offensive stance, all the while the leader appeared relaxed and confident. Nasrallah demanded the government to revoke its decision to dismantle Hezbollah's airport security apparatus and come to the table to engage in dialogues over a national unity government or else watch out! As he declared: "The government's decisions are tantamount to a declaration of war and the start of a war...The hand that touches the weapons of the resistance will be cut off." Anyone toying with its raison d'etre: resistance against Israel would suffer grave consequences. And so history, at least for a short time, would have it, Nasrallah means business. Before the loyalist factions could officially respond, the sound of gunfire, bombs, and pistols resounded through several neighborhoods of Beirut. With distance of a few days on the events, it no longer matters who started it. Both loyalist and opposition are to be blamed for the confrontations and escalations of a conflict, which is taking on a worryingly sectarian dimension echoing Iraq. Within a half an hour of Nasrallah's statement, the battles raged into the night, until a violent thunderstorm, which announced itself as unexpectedly as the battles sent everyone to bed. But sadly the bad weather was not strong enough to dissuade men from fighting. The street battles resumed around 5 in the morning, and the inhabitants of Beirut woke up to a city much under-siege with many key pro-government neighborhoods overtaken by opposition forces. Nevertheless, it would be wrong to say that the current events upset many Lebanese. Of course, most feel a great sadness for the violence and deaths resulting from the power struggle, however for many, the events give about half the residents of the city a sense of relief and renewal. The armed conflicts, which have erupted throughout Lebanon, will force Lebanese politicians to the negotiation table to help break the17 months deadlock bringing the country to a political standstill. As Maroun explained, "It is time for change. The leaders in power have been robbing the country blind, and me how do I benefit from the aid money that comes into the country? Look around you, we see nothing of that money". Certainly the gap in wealth distribution is impressive, and there is little attention paid to social security and increasing salaries and health benefits. Yet despite its reputation of being clean, the opposition is made up of factions equally corrupt as those that make up the government loyalists. Also, Hezbollah's lack of financial transparency may lead its supporters to equal amount of disillusionment down the road. But for the time being, the story of Lebanon is still in the making. As President Bush travels to the Middle East this coming Wednesday for probably the last time before leaving office, it will be interesting to follow what will be the impact of his journey in Lebanon. Already the signs are ominous with the battleship USS Cole having crossed the Suez Canal for the eastern Mediterranean. The question remains for analysts, how will this new power play taking place in Lebanon impact both regional and international policies toward, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Israel and the West? The movements taking place here is As Samia Ahmed hopelessly said at Mohamed Shamea's wake: "Where is this country going? We just don't know." No matter what her political position, her words are a realistic description about the situation on the ground.